F-35 = 36% of our Aviation Future?
Deep in the Pentagon’s FY16 budget submission, in a chapter entitled “Pursue Investments in Military Capabilities” is a table of “Major Acquisition Programs.” This table gives the dollar amount being spent, in both procurement and research & development, on the Pentagon’s major programs. The aircraft section lists twelve different aircraft programs where, presumably, the Pentagon is pursuing investments in future capabilities.
In a black and white table, filled with numbers, it isn’t very eye-catching or memorable. So we put the Pentagon’s own data into a pie chart and added some color:
Fully 36% of all “investments in future capabilities” in aircraft programs is being sunk into the F-35 program.
Further evidence the Pentagon is putting all its future aviation eggs into one, unaffordable, basket.
The Plane That’s Eating the Pentagon Budget
The Air Force, the Navy and the Marines all fly combat aircraft in service of the nation.
This chart represents the Department of the Navy (DoN) “combat aircraft” account for FY16. (Note that the DoN buys planes for both the Navy and Marine Corps.) The P-8 is the largest piece of the pie, with the F-35 coming in second. Overall, the chart shows some balance and a sense of the need for trade-offs to purchase all the airframes necessary for the future of Naval Aviation.
And this chart shows the Department of the Air Force “combat aircraft” account for FY16.
In the most stark terms, the Air Force is mortgaging its future on the F-35.
In Other News: Newly Slimmed-Down OCO Is Still 5th Largest Agency
We’ll be the first to say that it’s a good thing the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) account received a $13 billion reduction from last year’s request.
But, same as we first reported last year, if OCO was its own federal agency, it would still be the 5th largest in the discretionary budget. Yep. The Pentagon “base” budget is still the largest at $534.3 billion. The next three are Health and Human Services ($79.9 billion), Education ($70.7 billion) and Veterans Affairs ($70.2.) But still firmly in 5th place is OCO at $50.9 billion.
Sorry State Department and Other International Programs – at $46.3 billion in the FY16 request, you’re still in 6th place. Better luck next year.
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Instant Relief for the Shipbuilding Account: Cancel the Littoral Combat Ship
The Navy has spent a lot of time and spilled a lot of ink saying it can’t find room in its budget for all the shipbuilding requirements of the next decade. Things are so dire, Navy leadership says, that they need to take the extraordinary step of moving the cost of the replacement for the Ohio class submarine out of their budget into a new pot of imaginary money.
We have a great way to relieve that stress on the shipbuilding budget. Cancel the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS.) We’ve written about this poorly conceived, poorly executed program in the past. Secretary Hagel, in ordering a review of the program, stated it was designed to perform its missions in a “relatively permissive environment.” And this seems a little odd to us since operating in the “littorals” means being close to shore – not the most “permissive” of environments.
The Navy has already devoted more than $10 billion to the program through FY15. The FY16 request is for $1.8 billion for another three ships. Cancel LCS now and save at least $8 billion through FY19.
Mortgaging Pentagon Procurement for the F-35
We think and write a lot about the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. We leave it to others to talk about the technical capabilities of the plane. We focus on its affordability. And we think it’s hard for anyone to argue, with a straight face, that the Pentagon can afford to spend $1.5 trillion over the life of a single aircraft program.
But it’s hard for most of us to even conceptualize what $1.5 trillion really means. So let’s put just this year’s procurement request for the F-35, across all three services, into perspective.
The Pentagon is asking to purchase 57 F-35s in FY16 – that’s 19 more than the 38 they received in the final FY15 bill. The overall cost of those 57 airframes is slightly more than $11 billion (that’s both procurement and research and development.) But let’s look just at procurement of airframes and spare parts – that comes in at $9.2 billion. The overall Pentagon request for procurement – in the base budget – is $107.7 billion. So that means fully 8.5 percent of all Pentagon procurement in this budget request is devoted to a single aircraft program. That’s all procurement – from staples to ships. If you just look at overall aircraft procurement and R&D costs, 35 percent – more than a third – is going to just the F-35.
We don’t know how else to say this – the Pentagon is mortgaging the future of not just other aircraft programs, but all Pentagon procurement to purchase one, unaffordable aircraft.
Instant Relief for the Shipbuilding Account: Cancel the Littoral Combat Ship
The Navy has spent a lot of time and spilled a lot of ink saying it can’t find room in its budget for all the shipbuilding requirements of the next decade. Things are so dire, Navy leadership says, that they need to take the extraordinary step of moving the cost of the replacement for the Ohio class submarine out of their budget into a new pot of imaginary money.
We have a great way to relieve that stress on the shipbuilding budget. Cancel the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS.) We’ve written about this poorly conceived, poorly executed program in the past. Secretary Hagel, in ordering a review of the program, stated it was designed to perform its missions in a “relatively permissive environment.” And this seems a little odd to us since operating in the “littorals” means being close to shore – not the most “permissive” of environments.
The Navy has already devoted more than $10 billion to the program through FY15. The FY16 request is for $1.8 billion for another three ships. Cancel LCS now and save at least $8 billion through FY19.
Overseas Contingency Operations “OCO” Funding on the Retreat, Finally
At TCS, we’ve been writing and talking about OCO spending for a long time. And we’ve been making the argument that OCO is a safety valve, a slush fund, protecting the Pentagon from the effects of the Budget Control Act (BCA) that every other federal agency feels in its budget. Our view is that much of the money in the OCO budget is actually for “base budget” functions and should be funded there – where it is subject to BCA caps.
Someone has apparently been listening. We are pleased to note that the FY16 OCO is $50.9 billion – a decrease of $13 billion from last year. And we’ll be combing through the detailed justification tables to see where that money has landed back in the base budget, which was probably increased by that $13 billion, right?
But wait, hold the phone, squelch that enthusiasm for fiscal responsibility. The base Pentagon budget has increased by $37.2 billion in the request and that’s nearly three times the amount that was taken out of the OCO budget. Robbing Peter to pay Paul, anyone?
That Cap’s Too Small for You – Get a Bigger One!
Under the Budget Control Act (BCA), much maligned but still the law of the land, the cap on overall National Defense spending in Fiscal Year 2016 was set at $523 billion. But the folks at the Pentagon are looking for a new cap – evidently a much fancier one, too. The President’s Budget Request (PBR) for this year would throw that cap away and increase Pentagon “base” spending to $534.3 billion. (We’ll talk about Overseas Contingency Operations or “OCO” funding in a later blog post.)
But, as those late night commercials like to say, “That’s not all!” If you add in the portion of the Department of Energy budget that is devoted to DoD programs, $12.6 billion this year, you get $546.9 billion, AT LEAST, for spending on “National Defense.” And if you compare that to the BCA cap of $523 billion for “National Defense” you see the cap is busted by AT LEAST $23.9 billion. And today’s pre-rollout press is reporting that overall Defense spending will bust that cap by $34 billion. We’ll figure out the details of that as more agency budget documents become available.
The Pentagon seems confident the Congress will buy them a new cap – a much bigger one.
Pentagon Topline Increase of more than $25 Billion
The Pentagon portion of the President’s Budget Request for FY16 is $585.2 billion. This topline number is broken down into a “base” budget request of $534.3 billion and an OCO request of $50.9 billion.
And even though the OCO request is declining – more on that in a subsequent blog entry – the overall Pentagon budget would be increased by $25.2 billion if Congress agrees to this budget request.
For perspective, that $25.2 billion increase is more than the Administration is requesting for the Department of Commerce ($9.8 billion), the Environmental Protection Agency ($8.6 billion), the Corps of Engineers ($4.7 billion), and the General Services Administration ($800 million) combined. That adds up to $23.9 billion for four entire federal agencies that would easily fit within the $25.2 billion increase to Pentagon spending.
via TCS Analysis of President’s FY2016 Budget | Taxpayers for Common Sense.